Although today’s mining sector may be overshadowed by technology, it also provides the resources that underpin our modern world.
The global race to secure critical minerals is accelerating, but the industry faces a fundamental challenge long before a mine is built finding the geologists to discover it.
In Canada, nearly one-third of geoscientists are already over age 50, and federal labor forecasts project 3,700 openings for geoscientists over the next decade, with 94 percent of these openings driven by retirements rather than industry growth.
As governments push to secure future supplies of copper, lithium and rare earths, many in the industry warn the exploration talent pipeline may be running just as thin as the mineral pipeline itself.
More recently, the promise of AI to fill the gaps hasn’t materialized, and while the technology has helped increase productivity in the field, it isn’t at a stage where it can replace the technical understanding of rock types and mineralization that a trained geologist has.
The challenge was among those addressed when the Exploration Panel met during the Rule Symposium in Boca Raton from July 6 to 10.
It starts with education
Although the topic of exploration is discussed at most mining conferences these days, the focus tends to drift toward the influence of government policy and the broader investment environment.
However, in Boca Raton, the panel turned its attention first to education, or rather how the system is failing to turn out the necessary professionals to drive the volume of exploration projects.
In his remarks, Novo Resources (TSX:NVO,OTCQB:NSRPF,OTCQB:NSRPF) CEO Quinton Hennigh spoke about the excitement in the 1980s that drove a lot of people toward the resource sector, and ultimately an influx of geologists. For 25 years, they were leading the discovery side of the industry, but he explained how a downturn in the 90s shifted interest away from mining.
“We do not have a lot of 50 year olds to go out and run this industry. Are we seeing people come in at the ground level? No, we’re not, at least not out of the traditional countries like the US, Canada and Australia,” Hennigh said.
What he has seen is more interest from Latin America, where younger generations are coming to Canada and the US to get an education.
“That’s where my hope is. That we can actually foster the next generation of mining professionals out of those countries,” he said.
The importance of a stream of new talent entering the industry was one echoed by Stephen Enders Professor Emeritus of Practice in Mining Engineering at the Colorado School of Mines, but he sees some shifts on the horizon.
He noticed a period of about 10 years during which enrolment in geological science and engineering departments shrank by 50 percent, but more recently these numbers have begun to reverse. He’s attributed this rise to demand for electrification, AI, and data centers, and to the renewed prominence of their need for minerals in the news cycle.
“When I retired as department head in 2023, we had an average of 80 students for seven or eight years, and this fall we anticipate 200. The cool kids study mining now,” Enders said.
While he alluded to a changing narrative for the mining industry, he was also pragmatic, noting that it will still take some time to fill the employment pipeline with skilled engineers and geologists.
Is AI the answer?
The last few years have seen AI dominate the headlines, for better and worse. On the one hand, it’s a bold future that will increase human productivity in the same way James Watt’s steam engine spurred the Industrial Revolution in the eighteenth century; it’s also been viewed critically as a means of replacing the human workforce. So, what is it for the mining sector?
It’s already being applied to mining sites, driving haul trucks and automating underground operations. For an industry that is struggling to find talent, it’s a boon in some ways.
However, Brent Cook, founder of Exploration Insights, explained that while AI is a useful tool for discovery, geologists remain necessary.
“AI is fantastic in terms of compiling data much quicker than it would take us to do, running through reams of information and coming up with the data. But in the long run, I’m convinced it’s still going to take someone with years of experience at prospect mines across the world to interpret it and find something,” he said.
Cook noted that AI is only as good as its inputs and may not have the same understanding as an experienced geologist who has seen similar deposits elsewhere in the world.
Likewise, Lobo Tiggre, founder of the Independent Speculator, was also skeptical of AI’s promise in the mining sector.
He referenced the story of GoldSpot Discoveries, which was set to make big waves in the mining sector around a decade ago. The fear was that they were going to put geologists and analysts out of work, but that future never materialized. In 2022, GoldSpot was rebranded to EarthLabs before being acquired by ALS Global (ASX:ALQ) in 2024 and renamed to Geoanalytics.
“Guess what? I still have a job, and I don’t think that company exists anymore. So, I’m an AI skeptic. It is obviously a very useful tool, but I’m a big believer in actual intelligence,” he said.
What does the future hold?
Simply put, it’s going to take time to get talent through the pipeline from education to the workforce. While AI is shaping up to be a useful tool for new workers entering the industry, the panel’s consensus is that it won’t be the panacea to fix employment bottlenecks for discovery-oriented companies.
That’s not to say there isn’t promise.
“I’ve gone from seeing just a couple of old geologists around the rig and young helpers and drillers to young geologists. So, I’m seeing the change they’re talking about. Very, very encouraging,” Tiggre said.
For discovery-stage investors, as demand for critical metals rises on the back of AI and the energy transition, one more thing they should factor in is how a shortage of geologists and engineers could affect project timelines and how companies are working to attract the talent needed.
Ultimately, without a proper understanding of a mineralized system, an exploration project will struggle to succeed.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
