This text takes the exit as the starting point and works backwards to what a business buyer should choose now.
What the resale market looked like in early 2026
The official transfer figures give the shape. In the first quarter of 2026, 3,241 condominium units were transferred to foreign buyers across Thailand, 17.3% fewer than a year earlier, for a total of 13.5 billion baht, down 17.9%. Foreigners accounted for 13.6% of all units transferred and 23.9% of the value. Chonburi province, which is Pattaya, took 1,167 of those units, or 36% of all foreign transfers, and Bangkok took 45.6% of the value.
The composition changed more than the total. Purchases by Chinese buyers fell 38.8%. Purchases by Russian, Indian and Australian buyers rose by 33%, 40% and 36.1% respectively. A unit bought in 2021 with a Chinese resale buyer in mind is now being sold into a different market, and the owner who understood that early is the one listed at market rather than below it.
Three constraints on the buyer at exit
- The quota. A foreign owner of a freehold condominium can sell to another foreigner only if the building’s 49% foreign quota has room, and the quota is measured by floor area across the whole building. Where the quota is full, the buyer must be Thai or must take a lease, and both narrow the market and the price.
- The tax on the seller. An owner who sells within five years of registration pays specific business tax of 3.3% on the sale price. After five years that is replaced by stamp duty of 0.5%. A withholding tax on a progressive scale applies in both cases, and the transfer fee of 2% is normally shared. Together they set a holding period below which a sale rarely makes sense. On a $300,000 unit the difference between selling in the fourth year and the sixth is about $8,400 of business tax against $1,500 of stamp duty, which is a reason to plan the exit for the sixth year from the day of registration.
- The competition. A resale unit competes with the developer’s remaining stock in the same building and with every launch nearby. On Phuket, new condominium supply is expected to slow to 6,000 to 8,000 units in 2026 after almost 25,000 over the previous two years, which is helpful for sellers, but the 25,000 are still being absorbed.
Choosing the entry with the exit in view
| Purchase | Exit profile | What to check at entry |
| Completed unit in an established building, Pattaya or Bangkok | Deepest resale market, known quota, buyers from several countries | Remaining quota, building age, common fee arrears |
| Launch in a large Phuket project, 500 to 850 units | Many identical units reach resale together at handover | Developer’s unsold stock at completion, resale record on earlier phases |
| Villa on leased land | Thin market, buyer needs a lawyer, price set by remaining lease term | Registered term, structure of the lease, whether the building is held separately |
| Branded or hotel-managed unit | Sold with a management contract that the buyer inherits | Term of the contract, owner’s right to sell out of the programme |
The table points in a consistent direction. Assets with many comparable transactions exit faster and at a more predictable price. Assets that are unusual, whether by size, by structure or by the terms attached to them, exit slowly and at a price the seller cannot forecast. For an investor whose plan includes selling, the first group is the safer choice even where the second offers a higher projected yield.
The catalogue’s own figures show where the first group lives. Pattaya has 1,735 listings, Phuket 873, Koh Samui 363 and Bangkok 216, and Pattaya’s depth is the reason its resale market clears. A two-bedroom in Jomtien bought at $172,000 in a 606-unit project due in 2027 will have hundreds of comparables when it comes to be sold. That is a limit on the upside and a floor under the exit.
The pricing of the exit
The 14 listings marked below market price and the 44 investor resales are worth reading as a group. They are units whose owners have priced for a sale within months rather than a year, and the discount to the developer’s price in the same building shows what the market charges for liquidity at present. A buyer who models their own exit at that discount, rather than at the projected appreciation in the launch brochure, will be working from the number that actually clears.
On Phuket the underlying trend supports sellers more than it did. The average price of a freehold condominium unit passed 85,000 baht per square metre in the first quarter of 2026, around $2,400, and has risen more than 14% in two years. That is the growth an owner banks at exit, and it accrues to the units that can be sold, which brings the argument back to quota and comparables.
The listings on Tranio separate investor resales, completed projects and new launches into their own filters, so the three markets described above can be read side by side, and the local office in Phuket handles the sale as well as the purchase, which matters to an owner who will not be in the country when the time comes.
An investment in Thailand is bought once and sold once, and the second transaction is the one that decides whether the first was a good idea. Choosing a unit with quota to spare, comparables around it and a buyer base from more than one country will not raise the projected yield. It will make the yield something the investor is able to collect and then walk away from, which is the point of the exercise.
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