US-Iran Peace Deal to Redraw Market Winners and Losers

There will be clear winners and losers across global stock markets
should the US and Iran reach a peace deal this weekend, affirms the
CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial
advisory organisations.

The comments from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as a 10-day
ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon takes hold, oil prices retreat
from recent highs, and global equities push toward the end of the
week on a firmer footing, buoyed by expectations that diplomacy
between Washington and Tehran could accelerate.

He says: “Markets are already moving ahead of the outcome.
Investors are positioning for a scenario in which tensions ease,
energy flows stabilise, and global growth expectations
improve. 

“If a deal materialises this weekend, the rotation across
sectors will be swift and decisive.”

Global equities have shown resilience throughout the conflict. The
S&P 500 has continued to print record closes, supported by
strong earnings and confidence that disruption will be
contained. 

The FTSE 100 is sitting within striking distance of its own peak,
while Asian markets are on track for a second consecutive week of
gains despite a softer tone at the end of the week.

At the same time, oil has pulled back below $100 a barrel following
the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, with Brent trading around
the high-$90s after briefly pushing above $100 earlier in the
week. 

Even after the recent dip, prices remain sharply higher than the
roughly $60 levels seen at the start of the year, reflecting months
of supply disruption linked to instability in the Gulf and
constraints around the Strait of Hormuz.

Nigel Green says the next phase hinges on whether diplomatic
momentum translates into a formal agreement.

He says: “Energy markets will be the first and most obvious
casualty of a peace deal. Oil prices have been carrying a
significant geopolitical premium. Remove that, and prices fall. That
immediately reshapes the outlook for energy producers, particularly
those that have benefited from constrained supply and elevated
margins.”

He continues: “Oil majors and energy exporters have
outperformed during the conflict. A sustained move lower in crude
prices would pressure revenues and earnings expectations across the
sector. Investors need to recognise how quickly sentiment can
reverse here.”

Attention, he argues, should shift toward sectors that benefit from
lower input costs and improving economic visibility.

He says: “Industrials, transport, and consumer-facing
businesses stand to gain. Lower energy costs feed directly into
margins and spending power. 

“Airlines, logistics firms, and manufacturers would see
immediate relief. Consumer discretionary also strengthens as
inflationary pressure eases.”

Financials could also see renewed momentum.

He says: “Banks and broader financial stocks benefit from a
more stable macro backdrop. Reduced geopolitical stress supports
lending activity, capital markets, and investor confidence. Risk
appetite broadens, and that feeds into the sector.”

Tech and growth stocks, already a dominant force in US markets,
could extend their lead.

The deVere CEO explains: “A clearer global outlook reinforces
the case for tech. Capital continues to flow toward companies
driving earnings growth and innovation. 

“Lower volatility and stable rates expectations create a
supportive environment for these names.”

Yet he warns that markets may be underestimating the speed and scale
of any adjustment.

He says: “Positioning has been built around a prolonged period
of uncertainty. A confirmed peace deal forces a rapid shift. Capital
moves quickly out of defensive and commodity-linked assets and into
sectors tied to expansion and consumption.”

Geography will also matter.

“Emerging markets, particularly those sensitive to energy
imports, would benefit significantly. Lower oil prices improve trade
balances and reduce inflation pressure. Equity markets in these
regions could see strong inflows.”

Meanwhile, regions and economies that have relied heavily on
elevated commodity prices may face headwinds.

“Commodity-linked markets lose a key support. Currency
strength tied to high energy prices could unwind, and equity
performance may soften as earnings expectations are revised.”

The broader takeaway, Nigel Green concludes, is that investors are
entering a pivotal moment.

“A US-Iran deal would mark a clear inflection point. The
winners and losers will become apparent very quickly.”

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