GlobalData projects Finland’s installed power capacity to rise from 26.1GW in 2025 to 45.6GW by 2035, led by onshore wind and anchored by Olkiluoto 3 nuclear baseload.
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Finland is reinforcing its position as one of Europe’s lowest-carbon electricity markets, supported by the full commercial integration of the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant, the early completion of its coal phase-out, and the rapid expansion of onshore wind and solar PV. As industrial electrification, data center growth, and electric heating lift electricity demand, the country is shifting toward an increasingly decarbonized generation mix underpinned by nuclear baseload and variable renewables, according to GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.
GlobalData’s latest report, “Finland Power Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast to 2035,” reveals that country’s cumulative installed capacity is projected to expand from 26.1GW in 2025 to 45.6GW by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7%. Over the same period, the share of renewable capacity is expected to climb from 57.6% to 76.5%, while thermal capacity is expected to shrink from 14.5% to 7.0%.
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Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Finland’s power mix combines firm baseload with fast-scaling renewable generation. The full commercial operation of the 1,720MW Olkiluoto 3 unit has anchored national output, enabling nuclear power to generate nearly 40% of the country’s electricity from just under 17% of total installed capacity. With the closure of the Salmisaari plant in April 2025 completing the coal phase-out years ahead of the 2029 statutory deadline, the generation fleet has achieved exceptionally low emissions intensity.”
Onshore wind represents the primary growth engine of new capacity additions, supported by strong resource availability and streamlined spatial planning. While wind and nuclear anchor the supply side, solar PV is emerging as the fastest-growing renewable technology in percentage terms, driven by falling system costs and national net-metering rules for microgeneration. Meanwhile, conventional thermal generation has receded into a reserve and balancing role, with generation from gas, oil, and coal collectively contributing less than 4% of total supply.
Saibasan adds: “As clean power generation scales to meet rising demand from heavy industry, electric transport, and large-scale computing facilities, grid flexibility is becoming the primary operational focus. Enhancing cross-border interconnection through the Nordic market – notably via the Aurora Line to northern Sweden – alongside domestic transmission reinforcement and utility-scale battery deployment, will be essential to manage structural price volatility and prevent network constraints.”
Investment across Finland’s power sector is forecast to expand markedly through the late 2020s, with onshore wind capturing the largest share of capital expenditure, followed by transmission network upgrades and solar PV. Finland’s commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2035 under the Climate Act provides long-term policy predictability, complemented by funding allocations under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility for hydrogen innovation and clean infrastructure.
Saibasan concludes: “Finland offers a compelling model for deep decarbonization in energy-intensive northern economies. By pairing large-scale baseload nuclear power with cost-competitive wind additions and robust regional grid links, the market is successfully decarbonizing its supply while positioning itself as an attractive destination for green industrial investment.”
GlobalData Plc (LSE:DATA) operates an intelligence platform that empowers leaders to act decisively in a world of complexity and change. By uniting proprietary data, human expertise, and purpose-built AI into a single, connected platform, we help organizations see what’s coming, move faster, and lead with confidence. Our solutions are used by over 5,000 organizations across the world’s largest industries, delivering tailored intelligence that supports strategic planning, innovation, risk management, and sustainable growth.
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