The S&P 500 approaches its 7,816.70 record high as the futures contract breaks above 7,800, with AI-related buying offsetting the Middle East conflict, elevated oil prices and rising bond yields.
The stock market is expected to open higher today, but will the gains continue?
The S&P 500 index closed 0.66% higher on Monday, approaching the 7,800 level and its record high of 7,816.70, reached on August 13. Today, the market is expected to open around 0.5% higher, breaking above the 7,800 level as investors continue buying AI-related stocks.
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Investor sentiment hasn’t changed much, as reflected in last Wednesday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which reported that 34.6% of individual investors are bullish, while 46.5% are bearish.
The S&P 500 index approached its previous record highs yesterday, as shown on the daily chart.
S&P 500 Futures Contract: Breaking Above 7,800
This morning, the S&P 500 futures contract is trading higher, breaking above the 7,800 level and reaching new highs.
Resistance is now at 7,900, while support is at 7,800-7,820, among other levels.
Market Outlook: Attempting to Resume Long-Term Uptrend
The S&P 500 index is likely to reach a new record high this morning as investors continue buying AI-related stocks in the hope that lending concerns will be resolved.
The ongoing Middle East conflict, elevated oil prices, and rising bond yields remain negative factors for the market.
Here’s what I think is most likely:
- The S&P 500 index is set to break higher today, potentially reaching a new record high on an AI-stock rally.
- My Volatility Breakout System is currently short in the market.
What This Means for Your Portfolio
For individual investors, this environment calls for careful position management. While the market continues to advance, the combination of low volatility, seasonal weakness signals, and stretched valuations suggests that defensive positioning may become increasingly important in the weeks ahead.
The current market conditions highlight the value of having a systematic approach to investing rather than trying to time every market move. Whether you’re using technical systems like the Volatility Breakout System or following seasonal patterns, having a disciplined framework becomes crucial during uncertain times.
Thank you for reading my today’s free analysis. If you’d like to read its premium version and then receive the premium follow-ups (with ongoing updates on the Volatility Breakout System and other trading ideas), I encourage you to subscribe to my Stock Trading Alerts. There’s a free 7-day trial, so you can conveniently test-drive before the regular renewal. Sign up with the free 7-day trial today.
Thank you.
Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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