France carries one of the eurozone’s heaviest debt burdens, well above 100% of GDP. A default remains a tail risk, but the damage would extend beyond the French Treasury. It could spread through the banking system and eventually reach Singapore.
French banks hold substantial amounts of French government bonds (OATs), which are treated as safe, liquid assets and used to meet regulatory requirements and provide collateral. A default would force banks to recognise losses on these holdings. Given the relatively thin equity buffers banks maintain against their total assets, even a modest haircut across a large sovereign bond portfolio could erode a significant portion of their capital.
Basel capital ratios would come under pressure. Eurozone sovereign debt denominated in domestic currency has generally received a 0% risk weight under the standardised approach, meaning banks have historically needed to hold little regulatory capital against such exposures. Losses would reduce Common Equity
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