Markets Pricing End of Iran War Before it Happens

Markets are already beginning to trade as if the Iran conflict will
de-escalate—even though there is no formal resolution yet,
warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent
financial advisory and asset management organizations.

Nigel Green of deVere Group’s warning comes as oil prices
slipped back below $90 a barrel, from $120 at its peak, after
comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting the war with Iran
could end “very soon,” although he indicated to
reporters the conflict would likely continue beyond the coming
week. 

The shift in sentiment rippled quickly across global markets. 

US stocks closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both
gaining ground as investors moved back into risk assets. 

Asian markets followed the move in early trading, with major indices
in Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong rebounding after several
sessions of caution driven by conflict fears.

The reaction across asset classes suggests investors are already
positioning for a cooling of tensions in the Middle East, even
though there has been no diplomatic breakthrough and fighting
rhetoric continues on both sides.

“Markets are beginning to trade the end of the conflict before
it has actually happened,” says Nigel Green.

“Oil dropping back below $90 and equities pushing higher tells
us investors are already pricing a scenario in which tensions cool
and supply disruptions remain limited. 

“Financial markets are extremely forward-looking, but, in
situations like this, they can move ahead of geopolitical
reality.”

Energy markets, in particular, have been highly sensitive to the
conflict because of Iran’s central role in global oil supply.
Iran produces roughly 3.2 million barrels of oil per day and sits
close to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping corridor through
which around 20% of the world’s oil consumption passes.

Any threat to that route drives rapid spikes in crude prices.
Earlier stages of the conflict pushed traders to price in the risk
of supply disruption, lifting Brent by more than 12% in a matter of
days before the latest reversal.

The speed of the price swing illustrates how quickly geopolitical
risk premiums can build and disappear in modern energy markets.

Nigel Green says the market response also shows how political
signalling now plays a powerful role in shaping investor
expectations.

A single set of comments from the US president was enough to send
oil sharply lower and equities higher,” he notes.

“Markets interpret political messaging almost instantly, often
adjusting prices well before the underlying situation has materially
changed.”

However, the strategic outlook remains uncertain.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded forcefully
to Trump’s remarks, stating that the end of the war is
“in Iran’s hands.” 

The statement highlights the reality that the conflict’s
trajectory will ultimately depend on decisions made in Tehran as
much as in Washington.

The deVere CEO says investors could also be underestimating the
significance of a major political shift inside Iran.

“Markets may be underestimating the influence and
decision-making approach of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba
Khamenei, and his willingness for a longer war to drain American
financial and military resources and those of its allies,” he
notes.

“Leadership transitions inside the Iranian system can reshape
strategic thinking, military priorities, and diplomatic
positioning. 

“The global investment community has limited experience of how
the new Iranian leadership will respond moving forward.”

The Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority over Iran’s armed
forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, meaning key
decisions around escalation or restraint flow directly through that
office.

Uncertainty surrounding the new leadership structure introduces an
additional variable that markets may not yet be fully pricing.

Nigel Green adds that the broader geopolitical backdrop has become
markedly more unstable in recent weeks, creating conditions where
sudden shifts in sentiment can trigger sharp market moves.

“Whatever happens next in this conflict, the global
environment has become significantly more unstable and more volatile
in a short period of time,” he explains.

“Markets might currently be leaning toward a de-escalation
scenario, but investors need to remember how quickly geopolitical
realities can change.”

He points out that global investors are increasingly responding to
political signals, military developments, and diplomatic messaging
in real time. 

Algorithmic trading systems and high-speed information flows mean
geopolitical developments now feed directly into asset pricing
within minutes.

The deVere CEO concludes: “The reality is that markets often
move first and verify later.” 

“Current price action suggests investors believe the worst
escalation risks are limited. 

“However, if events unfold differently, markets would be
forced to reassess those assumptions very quickly.”

Research mining stocks at Investorideas

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