Is the US Commercial Office recovering or going to crash further in 2025? I guess the answer is it depends on who you are asking this question. Long suffering unit-holders of Manulife US REIT, Prime US REIT and Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT have seen their investments pummeled to just a tiny fraction of their original investments. Worst still, distributions have been cut or halted for a long time. On one hand, the higher interest rate environment effect is still ongoing even in 2025 as some office landlords need to refinance their previous locked in offices loans at the current higher rates. On the other hand, there are lesser office supply coming online as well as surge in conversion of office into residential uses which lead some to believe that 2025 will be the market bottom for the US Commercial Office sector hence a rebound is imminent going forward.
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