Join us for rolling coverage of the RBA’s official cash rate announcement along with expert commentary from economists and everything you need to know from Michele Bullock’s press conference immediately following the announcement.
No relief for borrowers
2.42pm
Today’s decision by the RBA to hold the cash rate steady at 3.60% will no doubt be disappointing for households with a mortgage. Another 0.25% cut from the bank could have seen those with a $500,000 home loan save around $80 a month.
For people looking to get on the property ladder this spring selling season however, home prices are expected to be more stable than if rates had been cut.
Lenders are also likely to consider putting more loan options with competitive interest rates out into the market in a bid to secure more customers. This is especially likely given forecasts for a rate cut in early November.
Cash rate held steady at 3.60%
2.30pm
The RBA has confirmed there will be no change to Australia’s cash rate and it will remain at 3.60%.
The decision this afternoon is in line with market and economist expectations and sees the continuation of the bank’s easing cycle trajectory. A consecutive cut, hold, cut, hold pattern of decision making has now been followed for seven months – a gradual easing against the cost-of-living crisis while country has grappled to stabilise inflation.
There are still two more opportunities for borrowers, homeowners and property seekers to benefit from lower interest rates this year however, with the board set to meet again in both November and December.
Economist call: Rate cut unlikely
2.13pm
With inflation back on the rise, REA Group executive manager of economics Angus Moore says it’s very unlikely the RBA will pull a surprise move this afternoon.
“We’re unlikely to see much from them this month,” he said. “The monthly CPI indicator was a bit higher for August, which makes a cut even less likely.
“The RBA will want to wait for the next quarterly CPI release at the end of next month, which will come a little before the November meeting. That will give them more information on how inflation is tracking, particularly as they are not putting as much weight on the monthly CPI indicator.”
Interest rate predictions from the big four banks
2.03pm
Having previously anticipated further rate cuts this year, National Australia Bank has now backtracked and does not expect any more changes to the cash rate until 2026.
Australia’s largest lender Commonwealth Bank has forecast the next rate cut for November, though its economists warned this week that the latest CPI indicator could change the outlook. Westpac says a November interest rate cut is now less certain, though it remains their base case. Neither bank has forecast a cut for today.
Economists at ANZ are also forecasting one more rate cut in November but say there is now a “real risk” that won’t happen.
Read more: It’s over: Big bank bombshell warns no more rate cuts coming
REIA calls for interest rate cut
1.46pm
The Real Estate Institute of Australia is urging the Reserve Bank to plough on with rate relief today, despite the recent rise in headline inflation confirmed last week by the ABS.
While the August data marked the highest annual inflation rate in 13 months, deputy president Hannah Gill noted annual trimmed mean inflation is still within the RBA’s 2-3% target range and low enough for the bank to cut.
The industry body said balance in the property market is crucial, adding that actions that help with tackling the core property market problems of affordability and lack of housing supply continue to be important.
Read more: Aussie property big names rally to tackle homelessness
Home prices continue to rise
1.29pm
Australians are continuing to grapple with rising property prices, with the latest PropTrack Home Price Index confirming August was the eighth consecutive month of price growth.
Home values rose 0.5% last month to reach a fresh record high for the nation. Property prices have jumped 5.3% in the last year, with the median value of a home in Australia now sitting at $835,000.
Sydney continues to be the most expensive city in the country to buy a home, followed by Perth and Brisbane. Darwin, Brisbane and Perth are the capitals which have seen the largest price growth increases over the last 12 months.
RBA governor Michele Bullock will announce whether interest rates will drop again. Picture: Monique Harmer
Markets anticipating a hold
1.14pm
Market expectations of a rate cut have been dropping progressively over the second half of the month, taking a clear dive following the release of the June quarter national accounts data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
While the economy grew slightly more than economists were expecting, the data confirmed 2024-25 was the weakest financial year for growth in Australia since the early 1990s, excluding Covid.
The likelihood of a cut has been declining daily since 17 September, with the Australian Stock Exchange RBA rate indicator showing 96% of the market do not expect a cut from the bank today.
Read more: Revealed: Surprising number of Aussies expect RBA rate cut today
Treasurer confident on inflation
1.02pm
Treasurer Jim Chalmers says he is still confident in the inflationary outlook for the country, despite the uptick observed for August.
“Monthly inflation figures can be volatile and are less reliable than the quarterly figures,” he said. “Progress on inflation has given the RBA confidence to cut rates three times.
“Despite increased volatility in the global economy, underlying inflation is within the RBA’s target and that’s a promising result in uncertain times. These results come at a time where inflation has ticked up in parts of the world including the United States, Canada and New Zealand and remains stubbornly high in places like the United Kingdom.”
RBA warns the economy is ‘at risk’
12.47pm
This afternoon’s cash rate decision comes a week on from RBA governor Michele Bullock’s appearance in Canberra in front of the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee of Economics.
Ms Bullock was largely positive when recapping Australia’s progress in curbing high inflation and the nation’s move into a sustained period of lower inflation. Despite this, she suggested the board’s outlook for Australia’s economy is weakening “the further into the future we look”.
The comments follow continuing international market volatility off the back of geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, as well as the fallout from the introduction of global tariffs by the United States.
Read more: RBA says Australian economy is at risk despite its strength
Cut, hold, cut, hold, cut…?
12.29pm
September marks seven months since the RBA began its first rate cutting cycle in more than four years.
Since that welcome relief for Aussie homeowners and borrowers, the bank has yo-yoed between holding the cash rate steady and cutting it. Cuts of 0.25% in February, May and August were interspersed with rate holds in April and July.
While it may feel like things are moving more slowly than anticipated at the start of the year, the approach aligns with the RBA’s plans to gradually provide easing while inflation softens.
Based on this pattern, we’re in line for a hold… but the RBA doesn’t make decisions based on patterns.
Inflation uptick concern
12:13pm
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly indicator last week showed headline inflation jumped to 3.0% in August. That is right at the top of the RBA’s desired 2-3% target range where it has been fighting to keep inflation since Covid.
While the bank has been expecting a small rise in headline inflation to coincide with electricity rebate roll offs, the latest data marks the highest annual inflation rate seen in 13 months.
The bank’s preferred figure is trimmed mean inflation, which strips out the effects of one-off and volatile price movements. It rose slightly to 2.7% in August but is still in target.
Read more: RBA rate hike on cards after inflation shock
Welcome to our live blog
12.01pm
Thank you for joining us today for this live coverage of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next cash rate decision, which is expected at 2:30pm.
We’ll be bringing you all the latest forecasts and updates over the afternoon while we wait to hear whether the cash rate will remain at 3.60% or be lowered for a fourth time this year.
If another 0.25% cut is confirmed, it will result in the lowest rate Australia has seen since early 2023. It will also mark the highest number of rate cuts Aussies will have seen in one calendar year since 2012.
