Home Real Estate From laggard to leader: The booming capital city that’s about to see its population soar

From laggard to leader: The booming capital city that’s about to see its population soar

by Deidre Salcido
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Rockingham.jpg

It’s the strongest capital city property market of the past five years, and experts say recent population forecasts suggest Perth’s rapid growth is set to continue.

Property values in Perth have jumped 19.5% over the 12 months to February, according to PropTrack data, and have almost doubled (98.3%) since 2021.

Despite the extreme price growth, the recent realestate.com.au Property Market Outlook predicts Perth and Brisbane will potentially deliver double-digit price growth again in 2026, with projections of between 7-10%.

Executive manager of economics at realestate.com.au, Angus Moore, said population growth was helping to drive the property market after years of net outflows to other states and territories.

“WA saw fairly substantial net outflows of population to other states during the middle and latter half of the 2010s, post-mining boom, which contributed to soft housing market conditions during that period,” Mr Moore said. “That has since flipped, with strong net inflows since 2020.

“Perth has recorded very strong population growth in the past few years, supported by both overseas migration and net interstate migration.”

The median value of a home in Perth rose by 19.5% over the year to February 2026. Picture: Getty


At the same time, the number of homes for sale remains tight. According to the latest PropTrack listings report, Perth had 30% fewer homes for sale in January 2026 than the same time a year earlier, with Darwin (-39%) the only capital city with a steeper drop.

Now, new forecasts predict WA’s population growth will be the most rapid for at least the next decade. An additional 584,000 people are expected to call WA home by 2036, according to the Centre for Population.

Buyer’s agent Peter Gavalas of Resolve Property Solutions said he believed the market was likely to be undersupplied for a bit time yet, though said understanding the composition of this population growth is key in identifying the strongest growth regions.

“While headlines focus on overall population growth, it’s actually the composition of new arrivals that matters far more for property investors and homebuyers trying to identify which suburbs will deliver strong returns,” Mr Gavalas said.

“The data shows growth is heavily concentrated in Perth and skewed towards younger, migrant households. This fundamentally changes what types of properties are in demand and where that demand is strongest.”

WA’s population is forecast to expand by just over half a million people by 2036 according to the Centre for Population. Picture: realestate.com.au


Mr Gavalas said more people were looking to buy entry-level and mid-range homes, in addition to units and townhouses.

“These buyers – often younger migrants or first home buyers – aren’t looking for prestige homes in established suburbs,” he said. “We’re seeing sustained interest in properties under $850,000.”

The suburbs leading migrant demand

Mr Gavalas – who was among a panel of 18 industry experts included in the 2026 realestate.com.au Hot 100 – said he expected suburbs in the city’s north west were likely to be popular picks for people new to Perth.

“There’s good value around the Clarkson and Butler areas, and surrounds,” he said. “They are very close to the coast, close to the freeway, close to infrastructure, I think they stand out at the moment as pretty good value.


“Banksia Grove is quite good value….there is really good infrastructure around there, lots of amenity still close to the beach, the freeway, so I think that resonates with a lot of people.”

Mr Gavalas said living by the coast is a popular desire among many buyers, and to the city’s far south, Rockingham and Baldivis were also strong performers for buyer demand.

One of his Hot 100 suburb picks, Nollamara, located 8km from both Perth’s CBD and the coast, offers value next to more expensive neighbours, such as Yokine and Dianella. 

“Nollamara offers a diverse range of dwelling types in units and houses, with some great options for first-home buyers, downsizers and families,” Mr Gavalas said.

Families arriving with children are driving demand for larger homes in Perth’s outer suburbs, according to buyer’s agent Peter Gavalas. Picture: realestate.com.au


“Most of the suburb is zoned for medium density development and will provide demand for the larger lots from developers and investors in the future.” 

See the full realestate.com.au Hot 100 suburb list for 2026 here.

Can the city sustain its pace of growth?

Belle Property’s head of WA, Travis Coleman, said it was inevitable the levels of growth seen in Perth will slow down, but said 2026 has already begun with record sales and “incredibly high” home open numbers.

“In a super competitive environment, people are trying to make their offers as attractive as possible, and that may include things like dropping certain conditions, not including finance clauses, going cash unconditional to make their offer more attractive to the vendor,” Mr Coleman said.

Homes in Rockingham, such as 23 Townsend Road, are in high demand due to their relative affordability. Picture: realestate.com.au


“Also increases in deposits – we’ve seen that recently in terms of, ‘Okay, would a little bit more on the deposit make a difference?’ Now, at the end of the day, it doesn’t really, but it does show intent I guess that you are serious.”

Mr Moore said more affordable parts of Perth have been outperforming in the past year or so, consistent with the “very challenging level of housing affordability” after rapid interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, as well as surging home prices.

“Interest rates have already been hiked this year, and further hikes are expected, so that demand for more-affordable areas is likely to persist,” he said.

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“Home prices were up 18% in 2025, following the same in 2024 and 17% in 2023.

“Perth has seen consistently strong growth – more or less uninterrupted – since 2020, with only a brief slowdown when the RBA started raising rates in 2022.

“That means Perth home prices have more than doubled between the start of 2020 and today.”

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