(www.investorideas.com
Newswire) I have a few charts for just you today, but right now
it’s only one that really matters – the USD Index.
Yesterday, the USD Index futures closed above the 100 level for the
first time since May, and today’s intraday price is also the
highest since May.
The breakout is even clearer on the cash version of the USD Index.
The price moved above 100, then moved back down a bit – held
(intraday low at 100.10) – and then moved up again.
The breakout is not yet confirmed, but it’s clear that this
situation is different. It’s not the emotional reactive rally
that we saw in May. Nor is it a spike-shaped top that we saw in
July-August.
It’s a clear move up that followed several breakouts.
And an invalidation of the breakdown to new yearly lows in
mid-September.
That day – when the rates were cut for the first time –
was the key one. Despite all the negativity hitting it (even the
Fed’s independence was questioned), the USD rose like a phoenix
from the ashes.
I’ve been writing this many times, but it’s worth
repeating again – the most bullish situation for any market is
when everything that could have gone wrong… Already has. Or
actually, it’s even better when the market declined and the
sentiment worsened despite a positive change on the fundamental front
(here: tariffs).
We saw all of that in the case of the USD Index.
And then it recovered.
It’s been rallying ever since the mid-September bottom with
relatively shallow corrections.
Of course, the best is yet to come.
The broad double-bottom – the kind of bottom that marked the
beginning of huge rallies, including the 2008 one – was just
formed. The confirmation of the breakout above 100 will make it clear
that the bottoming process is complete. The following price action is
likely to be huge, especially if the AI-led stock market bubble
bursts.
History Repeats: 2008-Style Precious Metals Collapse Possible
Firs
Please note what happened in 2008 – despite a great rally in
mining stocks and silver at that time – both declined truly
profoundly (before taking off again). The approximately 500% rally in
silver that followed the 2008 bottom is particularly notable and, as
you know –
we’re likely to see something even better in silver in the
future.
In the meantime, the USD Index is likely to soar, and this just might
be the case that stocks fall dramatically as well.
Here’s a chart that I just saw on
LinkedIn.
The previous moves to the red line (2 standard deviations from the
mean) have previously resulted in declines below the light-green line
representing one standard deviation below the mean.
The line on the chart is not just stock market valuations –
it’s stock market valuation divided by the GDP.
Yes, that’s how crazy the current stock market valuations are.
Is this time different?
In a way – yes, the AI tech is revolutionary.
In another way – absolutely not. Wasn’t the Internet
revolutionary? And yet, once the
dot-com bubble
burst, the stock market collapsed. The S&P 500 value was cut in
half. NASDAQ gave away over 75% of its value.
As I wrote before – that’s likely the first crack in the
stock-AI-crypto-correlated dam.
And it’s getting bigger each day.
Gold is still hesitating, waiting on signals – which are likely
to arrive shortly.
Exactly like stated on the chart.
When the USD Index finally soars in a meaningful way, I doubt that
gold (as well as the rest of the precious metals sector) and
commodities like copper will be able to hold up even decently.
New Service Launch – Anna’s Trading Lab
As you may know (if you’re our
Diamond
Member), we’re launching a new premium newsletter on Golden
Meadow® – Anna’s Trading lab.
Anna’s Trading Lab is a new newsletter covering multiple markets – gold,
silver, stocks, bitcoin, and other markets where the opportunity
arises. It’s provided by Anna Radomska,
who has been successfully providing premium analyses on Golden
Meadow® and in the preceding years on Sunshine Profits in the
following products: Stock Trading Alerts, Oil Trading Alerts, Forex
Trading Alerts, Oil Investment Updates, Forex Trading Alerts, and Day
Trading Alerts.
You can read
Anna’s welcome message, and her
analyses
(posted yesterday) in her space on Golden Meadow®.
I’ll be watching the markets closely for the trading
opportunities during this decline and the subsequent rally (as well as
during the rebounds) and
I’ll report to my subscribers
accordingly. This decline will most likely provide us with the mother
of all buying opportunities – at least for silver.
Get the
“Silver Rising: 100 Reasons Why Silver Will Soar”
book at
Silver2026.com
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder
Golden Meadow®
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