August 11, 2025 (Investorideas.com Newswire) The S&P 500 is
likely to open slightly above 6,400 – but will it keep climbing?
CURRENT TRADING IDEAS (not investment advice; make your own
decisions)
In the premium version of this article, in addition to the
VBS system for the S&P 500 index,
I include stock trades. Today, I am sharing one of them – a long
position in TSLA opened on July 14, which is currently showing a
profit of +$11.92 (+3.8%).
Stock trading idea – (TSLA) Tesla stock | Entry: Long since
$317.73 (July 14, 2025) | Target: $370.00 | Stop Loss: $270.00 |
Expected Duration: 1-2 weeks |
Stocks were gaining on Friday, with the S&P 500 index closing
0.78% higher on hopes of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal,
tariff-related developments, earnings releases, and other factors.
The market has continued retracing the previous week’s sell-off.
Today, the S&P 500 is expected to open 0.2% higher, though a
short-term consolidation seems likely.
Investor sentiment has deteriorated, as reflected in last
Wednesday’s
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which reported that 34.9% of individual investors are bullish,
while 43.2% are bearish.
The S&P 500 is slowly creeping higher, as shown on the daily
chart.
Weekly Chart: S&P 500 Retraces Declines
Last week, the S&P 500 gained 2.43%, reversing the previous
week’s 2.4% loss.
For now, this appears to be a consolidation following the advance
from the April lows; however, a deeper correction remains possible.

Nasdaq 100 Reaches New Record
The Nasdaq 100 closed 0.95% higher on Friday after reaching a new
all-time high of 23,619.24. Recently, the tech sector has been
driven higher by Apple’s rally and AI-related news. Resistance is
now around 24,000, with support at 23,300.
While there are no strong bearish signals yet, the recent price
action may be forming a potential topping pattern.

Volatility Declined Toward 15
On Friday, the VIX (Volatility Index) dipped to a local low of
15.15, confirming reduced investor fear.
Recently, the decline in VIX reflected declining investor fear
(declining
gold prices
indicate the same thing).
Historically, a dropping VIX indicates less fear in the market, and
rising VIX accompanies stock market downturns. However, the lower
the VIX, the higher the probability of the market’s downward
reversal. Conversely, the higher the VIX, the higher the probability
of the market’s upward reversal.

Stock Trading Idea – TSLA
A long position in TSLA was opened on July 14 at $317.73, with an
initial stop-loss at $270.00 and a profit target of $370.00. A
rebound toward prior highs – and possibly a breakout – looks likely.
Expected duration of the trade was 1-2 weeks; I’ll keep you updated
about any changes in the outlook.

S&P 500 Futures Contract Attempting to Break Higher
This morning, the
S&P 500 futures contract
is trading near its local high from Wednesday of around 6,425.
Resistance is around 6,450, with support now at 6,400-6,410.

Market Outlook: Moving Near New Records
Stocks retraced Thursday’s pullback on Friday, with gains in
AI-related stocks and a more than 4% rally in Apple shares. It seems
that stocks may be forming a topping pattern ahead of a more
meaningful downward correction, though attempts at reaching new
record highs are still possible.
There will be more earnings releases this week, but the market will
likely focus on economic data – tomorrow brings the key Consumer
Price Index (CPI), followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on
Thursday and Retail Sales on Friday.
Here’s what I think is most likely:
-
The S&P 500 has neared its record highs, retracing earlier
losses; the Nasdaq 100 has set a new record, but uncertainty may
return ahead of earnings and economic data. -
My
Volatility Breakout System
flipped to a long position last week and is currently in profit. -
My long position in TSLA stock from mid-July remains profitable.
What This Means for Your Portfolio
For individual investors, this environment calls for careful
position management. While the market continues to advance, the
combination of low volatility, seasonal weakness signals, and
stretched valuations suggests that defensive positioning may become
increasingly important in the weeks ahead.
The current market conditions highlight the value of having a
systematic approach to investing rather than trying to time every
market move. Whether you’re using technical systems like the
Volatility Breakout System or
following seasonal patterns,
having a disciplined framework becomes crucial during uncertain
times.
Thank you for reading my today’s free analysis. To stay up-to-date
with my following analyses and get other premium details, I
encourage you to
sign up for my free mailing list today.
Thank you.
Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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